May 1, 2011
Last week I said that it's always good to look back on your work to gain some insight on where you may have been wrong. So today it's time to look at Saturday's picks and it's not as good as a week ago.
For one things, I didn't have all the info I should have when I started, but that's no excuse. There were ten selections and three stakes for for me to examing at the five tracks I chose to use (Churchill Downs, Belmont, Lone Star Park, Delaware and Calder). Of the thirteen picks, there were only three winners. The fact that there were three seconds and one third is little consolation to a guy betting to win. Furthermore, I was embarrassed by the fact that none of my picks in the three stakes (The Westchester at Belmont, The Miami Mile at Calder or the Derby Trial at Churchill) even hit the board.
For thirteen picks a $2 win ticket on each would have yielded a total of $23. That's a loss of $3 on the day. I realize the picks are free. But picks which give you a losing day are worthless. So I admit to having let you down. The only good news is that over the first two weeks of handing out Simulcast Saturday picks on the Oaklawn website, we have had 36 total picks, which have been good for $99.70. That's still operating at a profit, although the percentage of profit has dropped to just under 40%. Still good, but not like we really want to do for you when we can cherry pick from the good horses racing on Saturdays.
It was another good day for Oaklawn-raced horses. Two were winners at Delaware Park and two at Churchill Downs. Although I didn't use the two at Churchill Downs in my selections, I want to point out to handicappers that horses like Ridgester ($14.80) and Irish Emperor ($20.20) are a good sign that Oaklawn-raced horses will have a good meet at Churchill Downs this spring. At Hawthorne, they even managed a one-two-three finish of Oaklawn-raced horses in the seventh race, headed by Magic Bullet ($7.80). Combined with Startingold and Ace Rich, the trio provided a $49.00 trifecta in just a five-horse field.
This week should be a great one with Kentucky Derby Day coming up on Saturday, on the heels of Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday. Of course those of us who love Oaklawn are excited about the chances of Joyful Victory (Honeybee and Fantasy winner) scoring in the Oaks on Friday and of both Archarcharch and Nehro in Saturday's Kentucky Derby. There will be lots of stakes races around the country that day and we will do our best to show you a profitable way to spend the day.
If you can come to Oaklawn on that day, also come prepared to enjoy the live and silent auctions which we conduct our annual live and silent auctions for the benefit of the American Cancer Society and our Oaklawn Relay for Life efforts. There will be a number of outstanding items, such as a collage of the 2011 Racing Festival of the South memorabilia, two beautiful prints of the popular artiste Lauren Wood and one from internationally-know artist Fred Stone, containing autographs of many of the top riders from the West Coast, including Hall of Famer Laffit Pincay, Jr, and a trip to the Breeders' Cup. The silent auction items will also be standouts, including a gourmet dinnern for six with me at my residence in Hot Springs on the Friday of Breeders' Cup week.
This is going to be a great week and I hope to have a better accounting of my Saturday picks seven days from now.
Best of luck to all of you.